Message:22355 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Thu, 14 May 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <13193_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260514/1539Z 31215@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260514/1538Z 17104@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260514/1532Z 2008@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260514/1231Z 13193@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 141231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels, with four active regions on disk
and only C-class level activity. Region 4435 (N21W60, Csi/beta) was the
only region that showed some growth during the period and was
responsible for the most of the C-class flares of 14 May, including the
largest event: a C5.5/Sf peaking at 14/0642 UTC. Region 4436 (N18E08,
Cao/beta) was the source of three minor C-class flares that happened
between 13/1630-1830 UTC. Region 4432 (N14 L=83), that is beyond the
west limb, was likely the source of two C-class flares (C1.4 at 13/1948
UTC, and C1.6 at 14/0212 UTC) and a CME first seeing at LASCO/C2
coronagraph at 13/2300 UTC, with no Earth-directed component.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain predominately at low levels with a
chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 16 May.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels through 16 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to stay at background levels through 16 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters reflected the waning effects of a positive
polarity CH HSS combined with a glancing blow of a CME that left the Sun
on 10 May. The total magnetic field strength decreased from 13 nT to 5nT
levels. The speeds also slowly dropped from about 500 km/s to 400 km/s
levels by the end of the period. The north-south Bz component reduced
the amplitude of its oscillation to +- 5 nT and the Phi angle remained
predominantly positive.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters near Earth are expected to continue reflecting the
waning influences of the + CH HSS through the end of the 14 May UTC-day.
On 15-16 May, a CIR associated with a negative polarity CH HSS is
anticipated impact Earth, likely resulting in more disturbed solar wind
conditions.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the period.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field activity might reach active conditions on 14 May,
if a sustained negative Bz period occurs. G2 (Moderate) storming
conditions are likely on 15 May due to the anticipated impact of a CIR
associated with a negative polarity CH HSS. Active to G1 (Minor) storm
levels are likely to prevail on 16 May due to lingering CH HSS
influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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