Message:22337 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Thu, 14 May 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <13177_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N2MH|K5DAT|K5DAT|WW6Q|W9GM|KA3BVJ|KA3VSP|N4SD
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FXXX12 KWNP 140031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels; Region 4436 (N18E14, Dai/beta)
was responsible for the majority of the C-flare activity, including the
largest flare of the period, a C2.3 that peaked at 13/0640 UTC. Region
4432 (N14 L=83) rotated off the West limb. Two new regions were numbered
during the past 24 hours: Region 4437 (N15, L=68), which since decayed
to plage, and 4438 (N19W30, Bxo/beta), resulting in a total of 4
numbered regions on the visible disk.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain predominately at low levels with a
chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 16 May.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels through 16 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to stay at background levels through 16 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters reflected possible combined effects from CH
HSS influence and a CME that left the Sun on 10 May. The total magnetic
field strength increased from 7 to 13 nT, before dropping and
maintaining an average of 7 nT through the end of the reporting period.
The speeds and densities also showed enhancements during the period,
with maximum speeds of ~490 km/s, through these had decreased to ~450
km/s by the end of the period. The north-south Bz component oscillated
between -8/6 nT most of the day, reaching as north as 13 nT near 13/1200
UTC. Phi angle was predominantly positive.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be slightly disturbed
through 14 May, as the glancing influence from the 10 May CME wanes and
a positive polarity CH HSS remains geoeffective. On 15-16 May, a CIR
associated with a negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated to arrive near
Earth, likely resulting in more disturbed solar wind conditions.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the period.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active conditions on 14
May, due to the glancing influences of the 10 May CME event and/or
effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. G2 (Moderate) storming
conditions are likely on 15 May due to the anticipated arrival of a
negative polarity CH HSS near Earth. Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels
are likely to prevail on 16 May due to lingering CH HSS influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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