Message:22320 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Wed, 13 May 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <13106_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260514/1528Z 31182@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260513/1440Z 17050@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260513/1435Z 1966@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260513/0032Z 13106@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 130031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels, with minor C-class flares
originating at Region 4432 (N14W84, Eko/beta-gamma) during the period.
There are 4 active regions on the visible solar disk. Regions 4432, 4433
(S17W53, Hax/alpha) and 4436 (N19E27, Cao/beta) decayed in the last 24h,
while Region 4435 (N23W42, Hsx/alpha) remained stable.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain predominately at low levels with a
chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 15 May.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels through 15 May. No S1 (Minor) or greater level proton events are
expected.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters near Earth reflected undisturbed conditions.
Total magnetic field strength was at 5 to 6 nT. The north-south Bz
component oscillated between -5/6 nT, the solar wind speeds were
generally between 350-400 km/s, and the phi angle was predominantly
positive.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient levels until
early on 13 May when a glancing blow disturbance is possible from the 10
May CME. A positive polarity CH HSS has the potential to become
geoeffective on 13-14 May, and associated disturbances in the solar wind
parameters near Earth are anticipated. A CIR associated with a negative
polarity CH HSS is anticipated to arrive late on 14 May/early on 15 May,
potentially resulting in an enhanced solar wind environment.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the period.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active conditions early on 13
May, due to a possible glancing blow of the 10 May CME event and/or
effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. Mostly unsettled levels are
expected on 14 May as the positive polarity CH HSS effects wane, then G1
(Minor) storming conditions are anticipated on 15 May with the arrival
of a negative polarity CH HSS.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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