Message:22319 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Wed, 13 May 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <13107_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260514/1528Z 31181@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260513/1440Z 11981@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260513/1440Z 67137@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260513/1437Z 1967@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260513/0032Z 13107@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 130031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 May 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 13-May 15 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 13-May 15 2026
May 13 May 14 May 15
00-03UT 3.33 3.00 3.67
03-06UT 3.33 3.00 4.67 (G1)
06-09UT 2.00 2.33 4.00
09-12UT 3.00 2.00 3.67
12-15UT 3.00 1.67 3.67
15-18UT 2.00 2.00 3.67
18-21UT 3.67 2.67 4.00
21-00UT 3.33 2.67 3.67
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 15 May due to a
negative polarity CH HSS influences.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 13-May 15 2026
May 13 May 14 May 15
S1 or greater 10% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on 13 May, mainly due to the potential of Region 4432.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 13-May 15 2026
May 13 May 14 May 15
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 10% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on through 15 May, and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater
blackouts on 13 May.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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