Message:22307 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Tue, 12 May 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <13080_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260514/1526Z 31168@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260513/0255Z 17029@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260513/0235Z 1943@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260512/1232Z 13080@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 121231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 May 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 12-May 14 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 12-May 14 2026
May 12 May 13 May 14
00-03UT 0.67 3.33 3.00
03-06UT 1.00 3.33 3.00
06-09UT 1.00 2.00 2.33
09-12UT 0.33 3.00 2.00
12-15UT 2.67 3.00 1.67
15-18UT 2.67 2.00 2.00
18-21UT 2.67 3.67 2.67
21-00UT 3.67 3.33 2.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected
through 14 May. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind
features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 12-May 14 2026
May 12 May 13 May 14
S1 or greater 10% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms until the end of the 12 May UTC-day. No significant
active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is
forecast for 13-14 May.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 12-May 14 2026
May 12 May 13 May 14
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 10% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 14 May, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) levels on 12 May.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
Return To Bulletin List