Message:22155 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 10 May 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <12962_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260510/1809Z 31071@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260510/1656Z 16922@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260510/1637Z 1851@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260510/1232Z 12962@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 101231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 10 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels despite multiple C-class flares.
Region 4432 (N14W49, Eki/beta-gamma) continued to undergo evolution,
gaining additional spots with mature penumbra, developed weak mixed
polarity in its intermediate area and was the culprit for nearly all of
the C-class flare activity. The remaining numbered regions were
relatively stable and quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels over 10-12
May, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a
slight chance for an X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flare.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV electron flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate
levels on 10-12 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
persist at background levels through 12 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment remained slightly enhanced under persistent,
yet weakening, positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field
strength ranged 2-4 nT while the Bz component remained near neutral.
Solar wind speeds underwent a decline from near 500 km/s to near 400
km/s by the end of the pefield is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
10-12 May as weak positive polarity CH HSS influences persist.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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