Message:22154 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 10 May 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <12961_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N2MH|K5DAT|K5DAT|WW6Q|W9GM|KA3BVJ|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260510/1809Z 31070@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260510/1644z @:N2MH.#NNJ.NJ.USA.NOAM [via Mesh] jnos 2.0p $:12961_N4SD
R:260510/1639Z @:K5DAT.NEWI.WI.USA.NA [ELK Grove Village, IL USA] #:5471 XrLin505c
R:260510/1639Z 37692@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260510/1638Z 52533@WW6Q.#NEIN.IN.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260510/1637Z 59276@W9GM.#SWWI.WI.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260510/1637Z 81167@KA3BVJ.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQ1.4.65
R:260510/1620Z 1850@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260510/1231Z 12961@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 101231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 May 10 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 10-May 12 2026 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 10-May 12 2026
May 10 May 11 May 12
00-03UT 0.33 1.67 2.00
03-06UT 1.33 2.67 2.67
06-09UT 1.67 2.67 1.67
09-12UT 1.00 1.67 1.33
12-15UT 1.67 1.33 1.00
15-18UT 0.67 1.33 1.33
18-21UT 2.00 2.00 1.67
21-00UT 2.67 2.67 1.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 10-May 12 2026
May 10 May 11 May 12
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 10-May 12 2026
May 10 May 11 May 12
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a
slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, will persist through 12
May primarily due to the development of AR 4432.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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