Message:22144 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 10 May 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <12933_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260510/1808Z 31058@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260510/0537Z 16897@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260510/0528Z 1825@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260510/0032Z 12933@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 100031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 10 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 4432 (N14W42, Dai/beta)
produced numerous low-level C-flares throughout the period, the largest
being a C2.3 at 09/0331 UTC, as the region developed additional
intermediate spots. New Region 4436 (N18E69, Dao/beta) was numbered,
however, its proximity to the limb made analysis of the region
difficult. The remaining regions were mostly stable throughout the
period. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph
imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels over 10-12
May, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a
slight chance for an X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flare.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV electron flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate
levels on 10-12 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
persist at background levels through 12 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment remained slightly enhanced under persistent,
yet weakening, positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field
strength reached 6 nT, the Bz component was predominately neutral
or northward throughout the period. Solar wind speeds ranged between
450-550 km/s. Phi oscillated between a positive and negative orientation
throughout the period.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain mildly enhanced through 12
May under positive polarity CH HSS influences.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
10-12 May as positive polarity CH HSS influences persist.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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