Message:22079 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Fri, 08 May 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <12836_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260508/2025Z 31023@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260508/2025Z 16848@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260508/2019Z 1776@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260508/1231Z 12836@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 081231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. A source beyond the northeast
limb, likely the return of old Region 4419 (N15, L=316), produced a
long-duration M2.6 flare at 07/1514 UTC, the largest event of the
period. Continued growth was observed in Region 4432 (N14W14, Cai/beta),
mainly in its intermediate and leader spots. Despite an overall decaying
trend, Region 4433 (S16E09, Cao/beta) added a C6.0/1n flare at 07/1757
UTC. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels over 08-10
May, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a
slight chance for an X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flare.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV electron flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on
08-10 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at
background levels through 10 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was consistent with CIR effects followed by
the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field
strength reached a peak of 20 nT. The Bz component was predominummary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 08-09 May,
and quiet to unsettled levels on 10 May as positive polarity CH HSS
influences persist, then diminish.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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