Message:21973 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Thu, 07 May 26 14:01:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <12770_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|N3FUD|N3IP|KA3VSP
R:260508/1457Z 30991@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260507/1417Z 16799@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260507/1404Z 7836@N3FUD.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260507/1404Z 66838@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260507/1401Z 1727@KA3VSP.DE.USA. Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels during the reporting period with
occasional B-class and isolated low-level C-class flares. The largest
event of the period was a C1.4/Sf flare from Region 4429 (S05W47,
Cri/beta) at 05/1724 UTC.
There are currently six numbered regions on the visible disk as Region
4434 (N12, L=41) decayed to plage and Region 4428 (S23, L=170) rotated
beyond the western limb as an E-type group. The remaining regions mostly
showed signs of decay. Region 4425 (N05W88, Hsx/alpha) appeared stable,
though full characterization is d41) decayed to plage and Region 4428 (S23, L=170) rotated
beyond the western limb as an E-type group. The remaining regions mostly
showed signs of decay. Region 4425 (N05W88, Hsx/alpha) appeared stable,
though full characterization is ddevelopment, with a few small spots emerging in both polarities
following recent decay. Region 4432 (N13W01, Cri/beta) had minor
emergence in its intermediate spots, despite an overall gradual decrease
in extent. The remaining regions wdevelopment, with a few small spots emerging in both polarities
following recent decay. Region 4432 (N13W01, Cri/beta) had minor
emergence in its intermediate spots, despite an overall gradual decrease
in extent. The remaining regions were mostly stable.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on 07 May, with a slight
chance for isolated M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares. Flare
probabilities increase beginning 08 May as up to two active regions
near L=330 rotate into view from beyond the eastern limb. Considering
the size of these regions and recent far-side eruptions seen in
coronagraph imagery, solar a at geosynchronous orbit was at low
to moderate levels, with a peak flux of 407 pfu observed at 06/0415 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV) gradually declined from
earlier enhancements, ending the period around 5 nT. The North-South
(Bz) was almost exclusively northward with only a quick deviation south
to -3 nT late in the period. Solar wind speeds averaged around 375 km electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 08 May. An increase to high levels is expected
by 09 May in response to the anticipated onset of a positive polarity
coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS). The gr) gradually declined from
earlier enhancements, ending the period around 5 nT. The North-South
(Bz) was almost exclusively northward with only a quick deviation south
to -3 nT late in the period. Solar wind speeds averaged around 375 km/s.
The phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away) orientation for the
majority of the period with a few, short-lived oscillations into a
negative (toward) orientation during the period.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect a slow wind regime into
early 07 May. By mid-to-late 07 May, the onset of a +CH HSS is expected
with CH HSS influences persisting through 08 May before beginning to
subside on 09 May.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The ge09 May as CH HSS
influences wane.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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