Message:21918 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Wed, 06 May 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <12667_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260508/1452Z 30933@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260506/0657Z 16736@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260506/0641Z 1662@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260506/0032Z 12667@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 060031
DAYDIS
:Product: Fore Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels during the reporting period. The
largest event was a long-duration C6.0 flare from departed Region 4424
(N17, L=197) from beyond the western limb. Occasional low-level C-class
flaring was observed from Region 4425 (N06W75, Hsx/alpha), with isolated
flaring noted from the remaining regions.
There are currently eight numbered regions on the visible disk. Most
regions showed various stages of decay and consolidation. Region 4428
(S23W78, Eso/beta) underwent slight decay, showing consolidation and
submergence with a decrease in trailer umbra and an almost total loss of
its trailing penumbra. Region 4429 (S05W33, Cai/beta-gof decay and consolidation. Region 4428
(S23W78, Eso/beta) underwent slight decay, showing consolidation and
submergence with a decrease in trailer umbra and an almost total loss of
its trailing penumbra. Region 4429 (S05W33, Cai/beta-g available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 08 May, with a
chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), primarily due
to Region 4429 and an active region (likely old Region 4419) near L=330
(seen in Solar Orbiter imagery and expected to rotate into view on 08
May).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low
to moderate levels, with a peak flux of 337 pfu observed at 05/1520 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels on 06–07 May with the transition back toward a slow
solar wind regime. An increase to high levels is expected by 08 May due
to the anticipated onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed
stream (+CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels through 08 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued passage of a slow-moving
CME that initially arrived at approximately 04/1200 UTC. Total magnetic
field (Bt) was sustained near 10–11 nT early in the period, while the
North-South component (Bz) initially ranged -7 nT and -10 nT. A gradual
rotation was observed early in the period, with Bz recovering toward
near-zero and turning northward by 05/0600 UTC. Bz briefly strengthened
to 10 nT around 05/1400 UTC. Solar wind speed steadily declined
throughout the day, decreasing from approximately 450 km/s to 350 km/s.
The phi angle remained predominantly in the negative (towaxpected to
remain at background levels through 08 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued passage of a slow-moving
CME that initially arrived at approximately 04/1200 UTC. Total magnetic
field (d by 05/0600 UTC. Bz briefly strengthened
to 10 nT around 05/1400 UTC. Solar wind speed steadily declined
throughout the day, decreasing from approximately 450 km/s to 350 km/s.
The phi angle remained predominantly in the negative (towards the Sun)
sector.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue declining toward nominal
background levels on 06 May. Minor enhancements are possible due to
potential glancing influences from a CME that departed the Sun on 30
April, though confidence in this impact is low. On 07 May, a solar
sector boundary crossing is anticipated, followed by the onset of a +CH
HSS that is expected to persist through 08 May.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field started the reporting period at G1 (Minor)
storming levels. Following the storming, the field experienced a single
unsettled period before returning to quiet levels for the remainder of
the period.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is anticipated to be at mostly quiet to unsettled
levels on 06 May as CME influences wane, though isolated active periods
remain possible due to the low-confidence 30 April CME. Active
conditions are likely on 07 and 08 May following the onset of the +CH
HSS, with isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods possible.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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