Message:21916 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Wed, 06 May 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <12666_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260508/1452Z 30931@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260506/0320Z 11545@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260506/0313Z 66751@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260506/0306Z 1659@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260506/0031Z 12666@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 060031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 May 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 06-May 08 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 06-May 08 2026
May 06 May 07 May 08
00-03UT 2.67 3.33 4.00
03-06UT 2.33 3.00 3.67
06-09UT 2.00 2.33 3.33
09-12UT 1.33 1.33 3.00
12-15UT 1.67 2.33 2.33
15-18UT 2.33 3.00 2.33
18-21UT 2.00 3.67 3.33
21-00UT 2.67 4.33 3.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 06-May 08 2026
May 06 May 07 May 08
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 06-May 08 2026
May 06 May 07 May 08
R1-R2 25% 25% 35%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 5%
Rationale: There is an increasing chance for isolated R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 06-08 May, primarily due to Region
4429 and an active region (likely old Region 4419) near L=330 (seen in
Solar Orbiter imagery and expected to rotate into view on 08 May).
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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