Message:21875 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Mon, 04 May 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <12555_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260504/1540Z 30890@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260504/1540Z 11467@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260504/1539Z 66683@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260504/1536Z 1606@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260504/1232Z 12555@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 041231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 May 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 04-May 06 2026 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 04-May 06 2026
May 04 May 05 May 06
00-03UT 2.00 2.00 1.67
03-06UT 2.33 2.67 2.00
06-09UT 2.00 1.67 2.67
09-12UT 2.67 1.67 1.67
12-15UT 1.67 1.00 0.67
15-18UT 1.67 0.67 0.67
18-21UT 0.67 1.00 1.67
21-00UT 2.00 1.67 1.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 04-May 06 2026
May 04 May 05 May 06
S1 or greater 5% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 04 2026 0133 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 04-May 06 2026
May 04 May 05 May 06
R1-R2 40% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: A chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
due to isolated M-class flare activity will persist through 06 May.
Probabilities decrease slightly beginning on 05 May as AR 4424 departs
the western limb.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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