Message:21829 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 03 May 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <12487_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260503/1611Z 30862@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260503/1611Z 11409@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260503/1605Z 1567@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260503/1232Z 12487@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 031231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. An impulsive C8.7 flare at 02/1838 UTC
from Region 4420 (N16, L=229), now beyond the northwest limb, was the
largest of the period. Minor growth was observed in Regions 4428
(S24W44, Dai/beta-gamma), 4429 (S04E01, Dai/beta), and 4431 (S16E31,
Dso/beta) and Region 4433 (S16E65, Dso/beta) was numbered as it rotated
into view on the eastern limb.
USAF SOON observatories reported a 20 degree long disappearing filament
eruption beginning at approximately 02/1658 UTC that was centered near
S31E08. This was corroborated by GOES SUVI 304 imagery, however, no
discernible CME was observed in either CCOR-1, LASCO or STEREO-A
coronagraph imagery indicating this event was likely mostly reabsorbed.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for
M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 03-05 May.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 03-05 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels through 05 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained
consistent with ongoing negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field
strength reached a peak of 6 nT, and the Bz component briefly reached -6
nT. Solar wind speeds ranged between ~400-450 km/s throughout the
period.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced under negative
polarity CH HSS influences over 03-05 May.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to
negative polarity CH HSS influences.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels
03-05 May as negative polarity CH HSS influences slowly wane.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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