Message:21775 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 02 May 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <12376_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260502/1349Z 30835@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260502/1348Z 16594@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260502/1340Z 1523@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260502/1232Z 12376@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 021231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 4420 (N16W90, Cao/beta) produced an
impulsive C7.4/Sf flare at 01/1529 UTC, with associated Type-II radio
sweep (est. 593 km/s), as it approached the west limb. Additionally,
this region was then also responsible for a C4.0 flare that peaked at
02/1104 UTC and was accompanied by another Type-II radio sweep (est. 641
km/s). Growth was observed in Regions 4424 (N17W56, Eai/beta), 4428
(S23W33, Dai/beta-gamma), 4429 (S04E13, Dsi/beta), and newly-numbered
4431 (S16E46, Dsi/beta). Regions 4430 (N17W38, Cro/beta) and 4432
(N12E61, Axx/alpha) were relatively quiet.
Further analysis of a CME that was first seen in C2 coronagraph imagery
at approximately 01/1528 UTC determined the event to be a miss well
behind Earths orbit. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for
M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 02-04 May.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 02-04 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels through 04 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained consistent with ongoing negative polarity
CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 6 nT, and the
Bz component briefly reached -5 nT. Solar wind speeds generally averaged
near 450 km/s with lulls between approximately 405-420 km/s.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced under negative
polarity CH HSS influences over 02-04 May.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels this period
in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet and unsettled on 02 and 04
May, with active conditions likely on 03 May, due to continued negative
polarity CH HSS influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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