Message:21774 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 02 May 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <12375_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260502/1343Z 30834@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260502/1342Z 16593@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260502/1337Z 1522@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260502/1232Z 12375@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 021231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 May 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 02-May 04 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 02-May 04 2026
May 02 May 03 May 04
00-03UT 2.67 2.67 2.67
03-06UT 1.33 3.00 3.00
06-09UT 1.00 4.00 2.67
09-12UT 2.00 2.67 2.67
12-15UT 2.33 2.33 1.67
15-18UT 2.67 1.67 1.67
18-21UT 3.00 1.67 0.67
21-00UT 3.00 2.67 2.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 02-May 04 2026
May 02 May 03 May 04
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 02-May 04 2026
May 02 May 03 May 04
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to
M-class flare events will persist through 04 May primarily due to the
current flare potential being presented by Regions 4424, 4425, 4428,
4429 and 4431.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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