Message:21538 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Tue, 28 Apr 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <12101_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260428/0604Z 30675@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260428/0604Z 16382@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260428/0545Z 1328@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260428/0031Z 12101@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 280031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M1.0/Sf flare at 27/0645
UTC from Region 4425 (N05E36, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Both Regions 4420
(N16W29, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) and 4425 produced the majority of the
C-class flares. Slight decay was observed in the intermediate spots of
Region 4420 while maintaining a weak delta magnetic configuration.
Moderate growth and consolidation occurred in Region 4425. Slight growth
was observed in Region 4424 (N16E06, Dso/beta).
The M6.0 flare yesterday at 26/2257 UTC had apparent ejecta observed in
SUVI 304 imagery at 26/2326 UTC. A possibly associated CME was observed
off the NW in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 27/0636 UTC. Modelling indicated
no Earth-directed component.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a high likelihood
to reach moderate levels (R1/R2, Minor/Moderate), and a chance for
X-class (R3/Strong or greater) events through 30 Apr, due primarily to
the complexity of Regions 4420 and 4425.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low
to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is anticipated to reach moderate to
high levels on 30 Apr due to CH HSS influence. There is a slight chance
the greate05-488 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-6 nT while the Bz
component was between +5/-3 nT. Phi angle was variable.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near nominal levels
through midday on 29 Apr. An increase in activity is expected by mid to
late on 29 Apr with the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. HSS
conditions are expected to persist through 30 Apr. Solar wind speeds in
the 450-550 km/s range are likely.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 28 Apr. An
increase to unsettled to active levels is expected on 29-30 Apr with the
onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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