Message:21415 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 25 Apr 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <11935_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260425/1755Z 30596@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260425/1755Z 10943@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260425/1724Z 66229@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
R:260425/1713Z 1236@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260425/1231Z 11935@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 251231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Apr 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 25-Apr 27 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 25-Apr 27 2026
Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr 27
00-03UT 3.33 4.67 (G1) 2.67
03-06UT 1.33 4.33 2.67
06-09UT 1.33 3.67 2.33
09-12UT 0.67 3.00 2.33
12-15UT 2.00 3.00 2.33
15-18UT 2.67 2.33 2.33
18-21UT 4.33 2.67 2.33
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 2.00
Rationale: Isolated G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming
conditions are possible (G1 likely with a chance for G2) late on 25 Apr
into early 26 Apr in response to the arrival of the glancing CMEs.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 25-Apr 27 2026
Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr 27
S1 or greater 25% 20% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for levels to exceed S1 (Minor) solar
radiation storm thresholds due to the flare activity of Region 4419 as
it rotates toward the western limb, and Region 4420 as it approaches
central solar meridian. Chances diminish to a slight chance on 26-27
Apr.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 24 2026 1815 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 25-Apr 27 2026
Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr 27
R1-R2 65% 60% 55%
R3 or greater 35% 25% 20%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
chance for R3 (Strong or greater) events through 27 Apr, primarily
driven by the complexity of Regions 4419, 4420, 4423, and 4425.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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