Message:21331 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Fri, 24 Apr 26 00:52:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <11827_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 240051
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 24 0050 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels with five M-class flares (R1-Minor)
observed during the reporting period. The largest event was an M4.9
flare at 23/1708 UTC from Region 4419 (N15W63, Eso/beta-gamma-delta).
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk.
Region 4419 underwent significant evolution, including flux emergence in
the leading spots, flux consolidation in the intermediary regions, and
the development of a delta configuration in the leader alongside a
mixed-polarity gamma configuration. Region 4420 (N16E25,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) also exhibited growth and consolidation,
particularly within the trailing and intermediate spots, with increased
shearing noted in intermediate areas. The remaining regions on the disk
were in decay.
Notable eruptive activity was observed throughout the period, with
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with each of the M-class
flares. A CME was observed to the NW following an M1.6 flare from Region
4419 at 23/0435 UTC and was first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 0500
UTC, while a CME to the NE was associated with an M1.2/1F flare from
Region 4420 at 23/0508 UTC (first visible at 0512 UTC). These events
were accompanied by Type II (1033 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions.
Modeling indicates the NW CME will pass ahead of Earth, while the NE CME
is expected to result in a glancing impact on 26 Apr.
Subsequent flaring from Region 4419 that are associated with observed
eruptions include: an M4.3/Sn flare from Region 4419 at 23/0853 UTC
produced a NW CME (first seen at 0912 UTC) associated with Type II
emissions (722 km/s) and 10cm radio bursts, an M1.7/Sf flare from Region
4419 at 23/1400 UTC launched a NE CME (first seen at 1424 UTC), and an
M4.9 event at 23/1708 UTC produced an additional NE CME (first seen in
GOES-19 CCOR1 at 1815 UTC). While analysis of the eruption associated
with the M4.9 flare is ongoing, none of these are anticipated to impact
Earth.
Finally, a diffuse eruption was observed in STEREO COR2 imagery at 1223
UTC and LASCO C2 at 1224 UTC. The source remains uncertain, with
possibilities including a SE filament eruption or NE coronal dimming.
Analysis of this event, as well as the potential for interaction between
the multiple preceding CMEs, is ongoing.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels over through 26 Apr,
with a chance for X-class (R3/Strong or greater) flares primarily driven
by the ongoing complexity of Regions 4419 and 4420. The likelihood for
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater radio blackouts is anticipated to
increase beginning 24 Apr as a large sunspot region, currently
identified in Solar Orbiter imagery beyond the east limb, rotates onto
the visible disk.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak of 4,020 pfu at 23/0010 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels through 26 Apr, primarily influenced by a weak positive
polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS). Transient flux
suppressions are possible on 26 Apr from the anticipated glancing
influence of the CME associated with the M1.2/1F flare from Region 4420.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels, though there is a slight chance (10%) for levels to exceed S1
(Minor) solar radiation storm thresholds due to the flare potential of
Region 4419 as it rotates toward the western limb.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning CH HSS influences. Total magnetic
field (Bt) averaged ~5 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) variable
between +/- 5 nT. The wind speed had a very gradual downward trend,
beginning the reporting period with an average of 525 km/s and ending
with an average range of ~450 km/s. While phi was predominantly
negative (towards the Sun), it frequently fluctuated between the
positive and negative sectors.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to experience mild enhancements
beginning 24 Apr due to the onset of a +CH HSS. Further enhancements are
anticipated on 26 Apr associated with the arrival of the glancing
influence from the CME originating from the M1.2/1F flare from Region
4420.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled
period.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on
24-25 Apr, with isolated active periods possible as the +CH HSS
influences persist. Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming conditions
are possible on 26 Apr in response to the arrival of the glancing CME
impact.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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