Message:21256 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Wed, 22 Apr 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <11726_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260422/1332Z 30491@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260422/1331Z 16114@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260422/1326Z 1099@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260422/1231Z 11726@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 221231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels with numerous C1 flares from
Region 4420 (N16E45, Dro/beta-gamma) and exhibited growth during the
period. 4419 (N15W44, Eho/beta-gamma) showed minor decay, particularly
in its trailing spots while producing a lone C1.0 flare. Region 4421
(S09E72, Cao/beta). Region 4422 (N09W37, Cso/beta) was numbered during
the period but remained inactive.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected (75%) to be at low levels, with a slight
chance (10%) for isolated M-class activity, on 22-24 Apr, primarily due
to the flare potential from Region 4420 and limb activity.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a maximum reading of 4,990 pfu at 21/1740 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on 22-24 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels on 22-24 Apr.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning CH HSS influences. Total magnetic
field (Bt) averaged ~5 nT after a max of 8 nT at the very beginning of
the reporting period. The north-south component (Bz) was predominantly
was variable at +/- 5 nT. The wind speed maintained an average at ~525
km/s, and Phi was predominantly in a negative orientation (towards
the Sun).
.Forecast...
Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions are anticipated 22-23 Apr as the
negative polarity CH HSS continues to move from its geoeffective
position, transitioning to elevated conditions on 24 Apr due to the
anticipated arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field went from quiet to active levels due to sustained
periods of negative Bz during the ongoing -CH HSS conditions.
.Forecast...
Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected 22-24 Apr, with isolated
active conditions possible, due to diminishing negative polarity HSS
effects and the anticipated arrival of a positive polarity HSS around 24
Apr.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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