Message:21234 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Wed, 22 Apr 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <11695_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|N3FUD|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260422/0320Z 30479@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260422/0320Z 16097@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260422/0318Z 6650@N3FUD.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260422/0302Z 1079@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260422/0032Z 11695@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 220031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period
was a C5.3 at 21/0602 UTC from Region 4421 (S09E72, Cao/beta). Region
4419 (N15W37, Eho/beta-gamma) showed minor decay, particularly in its
trailing spots. Regions 4420 (N16E52, Dro/beta-gamma) and 4422 (N09W30,
Cro/beta) were numbered during the period. Region 4420 was numbered and
contributed the remaining C-class flares of the reporting period, due to
its rapid flux emergence.
A large filament lifted off north of center disk, starting at
approximately 20/2350 UTC. The associated slow CME was first visible in
LASCO C2 imagery beginning at approximately 21/0130 UTC and subsequently
in STEREO and GOES CCOR. Modeling suggests that the CME will pass above
Earths orbit, with the potential for very minor entanglement with an
anticipated coronal hole high speed stream around 24 Apr. No other Earth
directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected (75%) to be at low levels, with a slight
chance (10%) for isolated M-class activity, on 22-24 Apr, primarily due
to the flare potential from Region 4420 and limb activity.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a maximum reading of 4,990 pfu at 21/1740 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on 22-24 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels on 22-24 Apr.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning CH HSS influences. Total magnetic
field (Bt) averaged ~5 nT after a max of 8 nT at the very beginning of
the reporting period. The north-south component (Bz) was predominantly
south/negative, with a sustained southward deflection of ~5 nT for the
majority of the reporting period. The wind speed maintained an average
~525 km/s, and Phi was predominantly in a negative orientation (towards
the Sun).
.Forecast...
Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions are anticipated 22-23 Apr as the
negative polarity CH HSS continues to move from its geoeffective
position, transitioning to elevated conditions on 24 Apr due to the
anticipated arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field went from Quiet to G1 (Minor) storming levels due
to sustained periods of negative Bz during the ongoing -CH HSS
conditions.
.Forecast...
Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected 22-24 Apr, with isolated
active conditions possible, due to diminishing negative polarity HSS
effects and the anticipated arrival of a positive polarity HSS around 24
Apr.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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