Message:21104 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 19 Apr 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <11471_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260419/1537Z 30399@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260419/1537Z 15964@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260419/1534Z 971@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260419/1231Z 11471@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 191231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Apr 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 19-Apr 21 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 19-Apr 21 2026
Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21
00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.33
03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 4.00
06-09UT 5.67 (G2) 3.33 3.00
09-12UT 3.67 3.33 2.67
12-15UT 5.67 (G2) 3.33 2.33
15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 2.00 3.00
18-21UT 3.00 3.33 2.67
21-00UT 4.00 3.33 2.33
Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are expected
on 19 Apr as negative polarity CH HSS geomagnetic conditions persist.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 19-Apr 21 2026
Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 19-Apr 21 2026
Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 19-21 Apr, primarily due to the flare potential of Region
4419.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
Return To Bulletin List