Message:20846 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Wed, 15 Apr 26 00:57:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <11179_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260415/0831Z 30247@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260415/0830Z 15709@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260415/0808Z 777@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260415/0057Z 11179@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 150056
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 15 0055 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels with only isolated B-class flaring
mostly from Region 4416 (N20W37, Dso/beta). There are currently four
numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4416 remains the largest
group by area but exhibited signs of structural weakening, including
flux submergence and a slight decay of its intermediary pores. Region
4419 (N13E58, Csi/beta-gamma) was the most complex group on the disk and
showed flux emergence, growth, and divergence within its intermediary
spots, leading to the development of a mixed-polarity gamma
configuration. Region 4418 (S11W07, Bxo/beta) is trending toward plage
with only two small bipolar pores remaining and Region 4415 (S18W05,
Hsx/alpha) remained stable. CMEs observed in coronagraph imagery were
determined to be directed away from Earth.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low to very low levels, with a
slight chance for M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 17 Apr.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
with a peak of 1705 pfu observed at 14/1445 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels
through 17 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels through 17 Apr.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning coronal hole high speed stream
influences toward a nominal regime. Total magnetic field (Bt) remained
steady and weak, generally ranging between 4 and 6 nT. The North-South
(Bz) component was predominantly northward, though it exhibited
occasional southward deviations with a maximum deflection of -4 nT.
Solar wind speeds underwent a gradual, albeit erratic, decline from
early-period highs near 420 km/s, to stabilize around 375 km/s by the
end of the reporting period. The phi angle was predominantly oriented in
a positive (away from the Sun) orientation.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain primarily near nominal
levels through 16 Apr. Significant enhancements are anticipated on 17
Apr with the onset of a corotating interaction region (CIR) that will
precede the arrival of a negative polarity high-speed stream (-CH HSS).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled
through 16 Apr. Activity is forecast to increase on 17 Apr to active
levels in response to the arrival of the CIR and the subsequent onset of
the -CH HSS.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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