Message:20548 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Thu, 09 Apr 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <10810_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 091231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. While much of the period was
characterized by periodic B- and C-class flaring, Region 4409 (N01W78,
Esi/beta-delta) produced an M1.0/Sf flare at 09/0845 UTC. Additionally,
Region 4414 (N15E43, Dro/beta) was responsible for a C8.7/Sf flare at
08/1543 UTC. There are currently six numbered active regions on the
visible disk. Region 4409 remains the most complex group on the disk,
appearing relatively static with some evidence of decline in its
intermediary spots, though a definitive assessment of its magnetic
configuration is increasingly hindered by western limb proximity. Region
4413 (N07W83, Dac/beta) appeared to undergo significant magnetic
simplification with a corresponding decay in extent, though extreme limb
proximity makes this too difficult to confirm. The development of Region
4414 was mixed with new flux emergence around the leading spots while
the trailing spots showed significant decay. The remaining regions
remained largely stable throughout the period.
Coronal activity was complex and difficult to characterize in available
imagery. An eruption to the East was observed in LASCO C2 at 08/1648
UTC, potentially associated with the C8.7 flare from Region 4414. This
feature appeared as a subtle, second shock front silhouetted against a
prior eruption first seen at 08/0536 UTC. Confidence in this second
eruption is low due to its faint signature and the visual interference
of the preceding event. Furthermore, the feature is not discernible in
STEREO A COR2 imagery, suggesting that if an eruption occurred, it is
likely directed far to the east of the Sun-Earth line. Modeling of the
suspected source region indicates no Earth-directed component.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels 09-11 Apr with a chance
for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares. A slight chance for X-class
(R3/Strong and above) flaring exists 09 Apr until diminishing as Region
4409 rotates off the visible disk.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a peak flux
of 7,322 pfu at 08/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels through 09 Apr. A drop to moderate levels is forecasted for
10 Apr due to the anticipated arrival of a corotating interacting region
(CIR) before again reaching high levels on 12 Apr due to the onset of a
positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (+CH HSS). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-nominal, quiet-regime conditions
throughout the reporting period. Wind speeds averaged approximately 375
km/s and gradually declined throughout the period. The total magnetic
field (Bt) averaged around 5 nT, while the North-South (Bz) component
was predominantly southward and reached a maximum deflection of -4 nT.
The phi angle exhibited a three-hour excursion into the positive (away)
sector mid-period, though it remained predominantly in a negative
(towards) orientation.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal conditions
through 09 Apr. Disturbed conditions are anticipated on 10 Apr, followed
by elevated parameters on 11 Apr, due to the arrival of a CIR and the
subsequent onset of a +CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mostly quiet 09 Apr. G1
(Minor) storming levels are anticipated 10-11 Apr due to the arrival of
the CIR and the effects of the +CH HSS.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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