Message:20430 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Tue, 07 Apr 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
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FXXX12 KWNP 071231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels during the reporting period with
C-class flaring limited to events from Region 4404 (N14W79, Hsx/alpha)
as it approached the western limb. There are currently six numbered
sunspot groups on the visible disk. Region 4411 (S06, L=111) decayed to
plage, though a new unnumbered region emerged to the east of its former
location. Region 4409 (N01W58, Dai/beta-gamma) underwent a period of
structural consolidation; while the total number of individual spots
decreased as they merged into larger cores, the group continued to
exhibit persistent flux emergence and developed a mixed-polarity gamma
configuration. Similarly, Region 4408 (N08W59, Dsi/beta-gamma)
experienced the rapid emergence of new leading spots, subsequently
developing its own gamma configuration. The remaining regions on the
disk were either stable or in a state of gradual decline.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 07-09 Apr, with a
chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance
for an X-class (R3/Strong or greater) flares, driven primarily by the
flare potential of Region 4409.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a peak
flux of 6,075 pfu at 06/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels 07-09 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the transition out of a waning negative
polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds continued to decline from a peak of ~580
km/s to near 400 km/s by the end of the period. A Sector Boundary
Crossing was observed as the phi angle shifted from a a predominantly
negative (towards) orientation to a more variable but predominantly
positive (away) orientation. Total magnetic field (Bt) averaged around 4
nT while the North-South (Bz) component reached a maximum southward
deflection of -3 nT before remaining mostly northward later in the
period.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are anticipated to remain somewhat enhanced
through 07 Apr before returning to nominal, quiet-wind state conditions
on 08-09 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under waning
negative polarity CH HSS influences.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
the remainder of 07 Apr, while mostly quiet levels with isolated
unsettled periods are forecasted for 08-09 Apr as the solar wind
environment stabilizes at nominal levels.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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