Message:20400 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Tue, 07 Apr 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <10667_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 070031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4409 (N02W43, Eai/beta)
produced most of the C-flare activity this period. The region exhibited
minor development over the past 24 hours, remaining largely unchanged
from the previous reporting period, though several areas of magnetic
shear were observed in its intermediary region. Region 4412 (N10W04,
Bxi/beta) also exhibited substantial flux emergence throughout the
period. The remaining spotted regions on the visible disk were either
stable or in gradual decay.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 07-09 Apr, with a
chance (40%) for M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance
(10%) for an X-flare (R3/Strong), driven primarily by the flare
potential of Region 4409.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 6,075 pfu at 06/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
on 07-09 Apr. There is a slight chance (10%) for the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over 07-09
Apr, again driven primarily by the potential and location of Region
4409.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters suggested waning influence from a negative
polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was largely steady
between 3-5 nT. No significant periods of southward Bz were observed.
Wind speeds were relatively steady, with a rough average of 525 km/s.
Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative solar sector
(towards the Sun).
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment may remain mildly enhanced into early 07 Apr,
as negative polarity CH HSS influences subside. Mostly nominal
conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of 07 Apr, through
09 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under waning
negative polarity CH HSS influences.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
07 Apr, with mostly quiet levels expected on 08-09 Apr.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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