Message:20357 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Mon, 06 Apr 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <10604_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 060031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4409 (N02W28, Eac/beta)
produced a C3.8 flare at 05/0204 UTC, the strongest of the period, as
well as multiple other low-level C-class flares. The region exhibited
minor evolution over the past 24 hours. The remaining spotted regions on
the visible disk were either stable or in gradual decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels, with a slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong) flares, over 06-08
Apr, driven primarily by the flare potential of Region 4409.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 6,000 pfu at 05/1645 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
continued a gradual decline towards background levels throughout the
period.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
on 06-08 Apr. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over 06-08
Apr.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters suggested waning influence from a negative
polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was steady between 4-6
nT and no significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Wind speeds
gradually declined from ~575 km/s to ~525 km/s by the end of the UT day.
Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative solar sector, with
sporadic oscillations into a positive orientation throughout the period.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain at least slightly
enhanced through 06 Apr due to waning negative polarity CH HSS
influence. Mostly nominal conditions are expected on 07-08 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached active levels during the period under
negative polarity CH HSS influences.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels on 06-07
Apr, as negative polarity CH HSS influences gradually wane. Mostly
quiet levels are likely on 08 Apr.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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