Message:20338 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 05 Apr 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <10531_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 051231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4409 (N02W21,
Eai/beta-gamma) produced an M1.2/1f flare (R1-Minor) at 04/1211 UTC and
an M1.0 flare (R1) at 04/2304 UTC, in addition to numerous C-class
flares throughout the period. The region exhibited minor decay and
separation among its leader spots. New Region 4412 (N08E15, Bxo/beta)
was numbered and produced a few low-level C-flares late in the period.
The remaining spotted regions on the visible disk were either mostly
stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels, with a slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong) flares, over 05-07
Apr, driven primarily by the flare potential of Region 4409.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 2,420 pfu at 04/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
continued a gradual decline towards background levels throughout the
period.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
on 05-07 Apr. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over 05-07
Apr.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters suggested the return of influence from a negative
polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was steady at around 5
nT and no significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Wind speeds
gradually declined from ~650 km/s to between 550-600 km/s by the end of
the period. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative solar
sector.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 07 Apr
due to waning negative polarity CH HSS influence.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached active levels during the period under
negative polarity CH HSS influences.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels early on 05
Apr, with quiet to unsettled levels expected on 06-07 Apr, as negative
polarity CH HSS influences gradually wane.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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