Message:20211 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 04 Apr 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <10451_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 040031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 4409 (N02W01,
Eai/beta-gamma) produced the majority of X-ray activity over the past 24
hours, which included two impulsive M1.3 flares (R1-Minor) at 03/0756
UTC and 03/1250 UTC, respectively. The region exhibited penumbral growth
while consolidating spots near its leader. The remaining spotted regions
on the visible disk were either mostly stable or in gradual decay.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels, with a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares, over 04-06
Apr driven primarily by the flare potential of Regions 4404, 4405, and
4409.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 4,465 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated
throughout the period, reaching a level of 6 pfu at 03/0405, but
remained below S1 (Minor) levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
on 04-06 Apr. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over 04-06
Apr.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated influence from a negative polarity CH
HSS until 03/1503 UTC, when a IP shock was observed from the arrival of
a CME that left the Sun on 01 Apr. The shock increased the total
magnetic fields strength from 5 nT to a peak of 14 nT. Bz was mostly
oriented southward, with a peak negative value of -11 nT observed at
03/1518 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from ~625 km/s to ~800 km/s,
and then entered a gradual decline with values near 700 km/s by the end
of the UT day.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 06 Apr
due to waning CME effects followed by negative polarity CH HSS
influences.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels
following the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 01 Apr.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm
levels over 04 Apr due to combined effects of a CME that left the Sun on
01 and influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. G1 (Minor) conditions
are likely on 05 Apr and active conditions on 06 Apr as negative
polarity CH HSS influences wane and any remnant CME enhancements
subside.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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