Message:20207 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 04 Apr 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <10450_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|VE3CGR|VE3QBZ|N6CTA|NH6SP|KC2NJV|K5DAT|N2MH|N2MH4|N3MEL|N3FUD|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260404/0432z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:10450_N4SD
R:260404/0431Z 73756@VE3CGR.#SCON.ON.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260404/0431Z 29603@VE3QBZ.#SCON.ON.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260404/0431Z 26576@N6CTA.#SCA.CA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260404/0430Z 627@NH6SP.HI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260404/0420Z 1004@KC2NJV.#NASS.NY.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260404/0416Z 29860@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260404/0416z @:N2MH.#NNJ.NJ.USA.NOAM [via Mesh] jnos 2.0p $:10450_N4SD
R:260404/0416Z 29919@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260404/0415Z 15106@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260404/0414Z 5240@N3FUD.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260404/0411Z 65080@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260404/0356Z 56562@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260404/0031Z 10450@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 040031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Apr 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 04-Apr 06 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 04-Apr 06 2026
Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr 06
00-03UT 5.00 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 2.67
03-06UT 5.67 (G2) 4.00 3.00
06-09UT 5.00 (G1) 3.67 3.67
09-12UT 4.00 3.00 2.67
12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.67
15-18UT 4.00 2.67 1.67
18-21UT 3.00 1.67 1.67
21-00UT 4.00 2.67 2.67
Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels are likely over 04 Apr
due to combined effects of a CME that left the Sun on 01 Apr and
influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. G1 (Minor) conditions
are likely on 05 Apr as negative polarity CH HSS influences wane and any
remnant CME enhancements subside.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 04-Apr 06 2026
Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr 06
S1 or greater 15% 15% 15%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over 04-06 Apr.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 03 2026 0756 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 04-Apr 06 2026
Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr 06
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 15%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for isolated R3 (Strong) events, over 04-06 Apr driven
primarily by the flare potential of Regions 4404, 4405, and 4409.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
Return To Bulletin List