Message:20180 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Fri, 03 Apr 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <10383_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 031231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels with M-class (R1-Minor) flare
activity observed. Region 4404 (N13W27, Cso/beta) produced an M3.5/2b
flare at 02/1815 UTC, the strongest of the period, as the region
underwent minor decay. The associated CME, visible off the NW at around
02/1848 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery, was modeled and determined to be a
miss.
Region 4409 (N02E06, Dai/beta-gamma) continued to develop additional
spots and area over the past 24 hours, and produced an impulsive M1.3
flare at 03/0756 UTC. The remaining spotted active regions on the
visible disk were either mostly stable or in gradual decay.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels, with a chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares, over 03-05 Apr
driven primarily by the flare potential of Regions 4404, 4405, and 4409.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 1,590 pfu observed at 03/1000 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained elevated throughout the period following an
eruption that occurred on 01 Apr, but remained below S1 (Minor) levels,
reaching a peak flux of 6.5 pfu at 03/0405 UTC.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
on 03-05 Apr. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels on 03-05 Apr.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated ongoing negative polarity CH HSS
influences. Total magnetic field strength peaked at 14 nT early
in the period before decreasing to around 5 nT after 02/1845 UTC. The
Bz component briefly reached -11 nT early in the period, then varied
between +/-5 nT after 02/1815 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from
around 550 km/s early in the period to a peak of approximately 725 km/s.
Phi was predominantly negative.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 05 Apr
due to ongoing negative polarity CH HSS influences. An additional
enhancement is likely late on 03 Apr or early 04 Apr, associated with
the anticipated glancing blow arrival of a CME that departed the Sun on
01 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm
levels due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 03
Apr, with periods of G2 (Moderate) storming likely, driven by ongoing
negative polarity CH HSS influences and the possible initial arrival of
the 01 Apr CME. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming is likely on 04 Apr,
with a chance for G3 (Strong) storms due to continued -CH HSS influences
and the anticipated passage of the 01 Apr CME early in the UTC day.
Active conditions are expected on 05 Apr as negative polarity CH HSS
influences wane and any remnant CME enhancements subside.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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