Message:20178 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Fri, 03 Apr 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <10382_N4SD>
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R:260403/1602Z 73726@VE3CGR.#SCON.ON.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260403/1550Z 22629@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.24
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R:260403/1549Z 50456@WW6Q.#NEIN.IN.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260403/1548Z 56391@W9GM.#SWWI.WI.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260403/1548Z 79614@KA3BVJ.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQ1.4.65
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R:260403/1232Z 10382@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 031231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Apr 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 03-Apr 05 2026 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 03-Apr 05 2026
Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr 05
00-03UT 4.00 5.67 (G2) 3.67
03-06UT 3.67 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1)
06-09UT 5.00 (G1) 5.67 (G2) 3.67
09-12UT 4.00 4.67 (G1) 3.00
12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 2.67
15-18UT 3.67 4.00 2.67
18-21UT 3.67 3.67 1.67
21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 3.67 2.67
Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 03 Apr, with periods of G2 (Moderate) storming likely, driven
by ongoing negative polarity CH HSS influences and the possible initial
arrival of the 01 Apr CME. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming is likely on
04 Apr, with a chance for G3 (Strong) storms due to continued -CH HSS
influences and the anticipated passage of the 01 Apr CME early in the
UTC day. Active conditions are expected on 05 Apr as negative polarity
CH HSS influences wane and any remnant CME enhancements subside.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 03-Apr 05 2026
Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr 05
S1 or greater 50% 50% 25%
Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels on 03-05 Apr.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 02 2026 1815 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 03-Apr 05 2026
Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr 05
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 25% 25% 25%
Rationale: Solar activity is likely to reach moderate
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for X-class (R3-Strong)
flares, over 03-05 Apr driven primarily by the flare potential of
Regions 4404, 4405, and 4409.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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