Message:20150 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Fri, 03 Apr 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <10363_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
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R:260403/0354Z 48399@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
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FXXX10 KWNP 030031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Apr 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 03-Apr 05 2026 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 03-Apr 05 2026
Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr 05
00-03UT 5.33 (G1) 6.00 (G2) 3.67
03-06UT 4.00 6.00 (G2) 2.00
06-09UT 5.67 (G2) 5.67 (G2) 3.00
09-12UT 3.33 3.67 3.00
12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 3.00
15-18UT 2.67 4.67 (G1) 3.33
18-21UT 4.33 3.67 3.33
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 4.00 3.33
Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1-G2
(Minor-Moderate) levels on 03 Apr due to continued CH HSS activity.
G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for G3 (Strong), are likely
from late on 03 Apr and through 04 Apr due to anticipated effects from
the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 01 Apr. A decrease to active
levels is expected over 05 Apr as solar wind enhancements wane.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 03-Apr 05 2026
Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr 05
S1 or greater 50% 50% 25%
Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over 03-05 Apr due
primarily to the CME associated with the filament eruption from 01 Apr.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 02 2026 1815 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 03-Apr 05 2026
Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr 05
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 20% 20% 20%
Rationale: Solar activity is likely to reach moderate
(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) levels, with slight chance for X-class
(R3-Strong) flares over 03-05 Apr, due primarily to the flare potential
of Regions 4404, 4405 and 4409.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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