Message:20149 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Fri, 03 Apr 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <10362_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 030031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M3.5/2b flare which
peaked at 02/1815 UTC from Region 4404 (N13W21, Cso/beta). Subsequent
coronagraph imagery contained a narrow CME signature to the NW beginning
after 02/1848 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Modeling of the event is
ongoing.
Region 4409 (N02E13, Dai/beta-gamma) continued to develop additional
spots and area over the past 24 hours. The remaining spotted active
regions on the visible disk were either mostly stable or in gradual
decay.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate)
levels, with slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares over 03-05
Apr, due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 4404, 4405 and
4409.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit were at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit remained below S1 (Minor) levels but continued
to gradually increase, likely associated with a filament eruption on 01
Apr.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to return to high levels
03 and 04 Apr due to HSS influence. There is a chance for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm
levels over 03-05 Apr due primarily to the CME associated with the
filament eruption from 01 Apr.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters suggested a transition from a CME to influence
from a negative polarity coronal hole. Total magnetic field strength
reached a peak of 17 nT but eventually settled near the 5-6 nT range by
the end of the UT day. The Bz component was primarily oriented
southward, with a peak negative value of -16 nT. Solar wind speeds
increased from ~435 km/s to ~700 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was
predominantly negative.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced under HSS
conditions through 05 Apr. Additional enhancements from a glancing blow
from the 01 Apr CME are expected late on 03 Apr to early on 04 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic
storm levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels
on 03 Apr due to continued CH HSS activity. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate)
levels, with a chance for G3 (Strong), are likely from late on 03 Apr
and through 04 Apr due to anticipated effects from the arrival of a CME
that left the Sun on 01 Apr. A decrease to active levels is expected
over 05 Apr as solar wind enhancements wane.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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