Message:19898 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Tue, 31 Mar 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <10154_N4SD>
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FXXX10 KWNP 311231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Mar 31 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 31-Apr 02 2026 is 6.33 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 31-Apr 02 2026
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02
00-03UT 2.00 5.00 (G1) 2.67
03-06UT 2.67 4.67 (G1) 2.67
06-09UT 2.33 4.33 2.00
09-12UT 2.00 4.00 3.33
12-15UT 2.00 3.00 4.00
15-18UT 5.67 (G2) 2.67 4.67 (G1)
18-21UT 6.33 (G2) 2.00 4.33
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 4.67 (G1)
Rationale: G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming levels are likely, with a
chance for isolated G3 (Strong) storm levels on 31 Mar due to CME
effects from the 30 Mar X1.4 major flare event. Active to G1 (Minor)
levels are then expected to continue into 01 Apr as CME effects wane.
CME effects will likely give way to CH HSS activity on 02 Apr causing
active to G1 (Minor) conditions by mid to late in the UTC day.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2026
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02
S1 or greater 25% 15% 15%
Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
exceed event levels (S1-Minor) on 31 Mar as a result of the X1.4 flare
at 30/0319 UTC. A slight chance remains for 01-02 Apr.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2026
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 15%
Rationale: Solar activity is likely to reach Minor-Moderate (R1-R2)
levels, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong) through 02
Apr, due to the complexity and evolution of the active regions currently
on the solar disk, particularly Region 4405.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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