Message:19853 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Mon, 30 Mar 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <10103_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260330/1353z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:10103_N4SD
R:260330/1352Z 47989@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260330/1352Z 64726@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260330/1351Z 56242@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260330/1232Z 10103@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 301231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels due to an X1.4 flare (R3/Strong) at
30/0319 UTC from Region 4405 (S27E37, Eao/beta-gamma). This event also
produced a Type II Sweep at 30/0300 UTC with an escape velocity of 1,872
km/s. Weak C-class flare activity was also observed from Regions 4401
(N25W33, Eao/beta) and 4407 (N18E38, Bxo/beta). Region 4401 underwent
decay and magnetic simplification in its intermediate area. Region 4405
gained an additional trailing spot with maturing penumbra.
A partial-halo CME was observed in LASCO c2 imagery beginning at 30/0312
UTC originating from the SE limb associated with the X1.4 flare
mentioned earlier.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely through 01 Apr and a slight chance pf
X-class flares (R3/Strong) through 01 Apr.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 3,750 pfu at 29/1520 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 31 Mar, with high levels likely on 01 Apr. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is likely to exceed event levels
(S1/Minor) on 31 Mar through 01 Apr.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a solar sector boundary
crossing. Total field increased from 6 nT to a peak of 13 nT. The Bz
component underwent a few early southward deflections reaching -6 nT,
but was mostly near neutral or northward after. Solar wind speeds
increased from near 365 km/s and to near 500 km/s by the end of the
reporting period. Phi became positive at approximately 29/1412 UTC.
.Forecast...
Additional enhancements due to CIR and HSS influences are expected later
on 30 Mar and continuing through 31 Mar. Further enhancements are likely
associated with CME impacts middle to late on 31 Mar and continuing into
01 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 30 Mar due to recurrent
positive polarity CH HSS effects. Enhancements are likely to be further
increased to G2/Major levels midday to late on 31 Mar due to possible
CME effects from the 30 Mar X1.4 major flare event. Active to G1/Minor
levels are then expected into 01 Apr due to continued CH HSS and CME
effects.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
Return To Bulletin List