Message:19744 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 28 Mar 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <9973_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 281231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate (R1/minor) levels due to a long duration
M1.3 flare that peaked at 28/0416 UTC from Region 4405 (S25E59,
Ehi/beta-gamma). Associated with this flare was a Type II radio sweep
observed at 28/0736 UTC with a shock speed of 868 km/s. Region 4401
(N25W09, Ekc/beta-gamma) was the largest region on the disk and
exhibited signs of evolution as it gained maturing penumbra in its
intermediate area while maintaining a mixed polarity configuration. A
potential area of new spots were visible near N17E66. The remainder of
the spotted regions were quiet and stable.
LASCO C2 imagery observed a slow-moving CME off the SE limb, first
visible at 28/0336 UTC. This CME was associated with the M1.3 flare.
Initial ENLIL model analysis of this CME determined no Earth-directed
component.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
flares likely through 30 Mar. A slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong) is
possible through 30 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 12,784 pfu at 27/1515 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels through 30 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a return to an ambient-like environment.
Solar wind speed reached a peak near 450 km/s before decreasing to about
375 km/s. Total IMF reached 5 nT through the period. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT. Phi was in a predominantly
negative orientation.
.Forecast...
Near background conditions are expected to persist through 28 Mar.
Enhancements from recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS influences are
anticipated to begin by late 29 Mar and persist through 30 Mar.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
Primarily quiet levels are expected to persist through 28 Mar. Quiet
conditions are then expected to give way to unsettled to active levels
by late on 29 Mar and continue into 30 Mar due to positive polarity CH
HSS effects.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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