Message:19639 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Thu, 26 Mar 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
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FXXX12 KWNP 260031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with seven numbered active regions on
the disk. The largest event of the period was a C3.7 flare at 25/0030
UTC from Region 4400 (S12W65, Dao/beta-gamma). Region 4403 (N16E67,
Hsx/alpha), which was numbered last period, is the suspected source of
several flares observed beyond the limb prior to its rotation onto the
disk. Due to its proximity to the northeast limb, foreshortening
continues to prevent a definitive characterization of its complexity and
extent.
The remaining disk regions exhibited varying degrees of decay and
evolution. Region 4397 (N15W27, Axx/alpha) has dissipated into a small
unipolar group, while Region 4398 (S17W27, Dro/beta) underwent penumbral
decay. Region 4399 (S17E28, Hax/alpha) remained largely stable, though
it continues to fluctuate between a unipolar and bipolar state due to
the short-lived trailing spots. Significant internal changes were noted
in the more complex groups: Region 4400 experienced extensive
reconfiguration and flux emergence and gained a gamma configuration.
Similarly, Region 4401 (N25E24, Eai/beta) exhibited persistent flux
emergence and an expansion of penumbral area in its trailing spots.
Region 4402 (N17E32, Dso/beta) showed a decline in its leader spot
cluster.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 28 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak 8,451 pfu at 25/1540 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux persisted at nominal background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels through 28 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
For the first several hours of the reporting period, solar wind
parameters reflected the continued waning influence of a negative
polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). During this time,
solar wind speed decreased from approximately 550 km/s to 515 km/s,
while the total magnetic field (Bt) averaged near 4 nT.
At 25/0552 UTC, a transient CME began its passage through the near-Earth
environment. This was marked by an increase in Bt to a peak of 10 nT at
25/0835 UTC accompanied by a rise in solar wind speed to a peak of 633
km/s. The North-South (Bz) exhibited several southward deflections early
during the passage, reaching as far south as -8 nT, before returning
northward for most of the period. The phi angle remained primarily in a
negative (towards) orientation.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain mildly enhanced as current
influences diminish. Additional enhancements are anticipated 26 Mar
following the arrival of another component of the 22 Mar CME. Following
this passage, a gradual return to a nominal, slow-speed regime is
forecast throughout 28 Mar.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storming levels in the early
half of the reporting period before returning to mostly quiet levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels
with isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods possible on 26 Mar. As these
influences subside, conditions are forecast to drop to unsettled levels
on 27 Mar, with a return to mostly quiet levels by 28 Mar.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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