Message:19519 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Tue, 24 Mar 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
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FXXX12 KWNP 241231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with only a scattering of C1 flares
throughout the reporting period, primarily from Regions 4398 (S17W13,
Bxi/beta) and 4402 (N17E44, Dao/beta). Region 4401 (N25E38,
Dai/beta-gamma) continued to exhibit flux emergence in its intermediary
region, resulting in new trailing and intermediary spots. Regions 4398
and 4400 (S13W52, Dao/beta-delta) also exhibited flux emergence, but
only 4398 gained new spots, with 4400 actually mildly simplifying. The
remaining spot groups were either stable or in decay.
No additional Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on
24-26 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 8,285 pfu at 23/1900 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was slightly elevated, but well below alert threshold levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels through 25 Mar due to post storming effects, before
returning to normal levels on 26 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to continue near background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected diminishing negative polarity CH HSS
influences. Solar wind speed slowly decreased throughout the period from
~675 km/s to ~600 km/s. Total IMF (Bt) averaged between 4-6 nT, Bz
fluctuated between +/-5 nT, spending most of the period in a southern
orientation, and Phi was predominantly in a negative orientation.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced, reflecting
slowly diminishing CH HSS influences through 25 Mar. Late on 26 Mar, the
22 Mar CME is anticipated to pass near Earth, possibly inducing
additional
enhancements in the solar wind environment.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) levels under waning CME/CH HSS
influences.
.Forecast...
Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are possible on 24
Mar
as negative polarity CH HSS influences persist. Mostly unsettled
conditions are expected, with isolated active periods likely, on 25 Mar
as negative polarity CH HSS influences continue, but gradually diminish.
By late 26 Mar, the aforementioned CME is anticipated to pass near
Earth, likely increasing activity to active levels.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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