Message:19494 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Tue, 24 Mar 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <9687_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 240031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4401 (N24E52, Dao/beta)
continued to rotate onto the visible disk, with additional trailing
spots developing as it came into view. This region contributed the most
flares, including a C3.2 flare at 23/0029 UTC, the largest of the
period. Regions 4398 (S16W01, Csi/beta) and 4400 (S12W32,
Dao/beta-delta) both exhibited slight growth and reorganization of their
peripheral spots, but both were mostly inactive. The remaining spot
groups were either stable or in decay.
The CME associated with a filament disappearance, mentioned in the
previous discussion, was modeled and indicated a possible glancing blow
at Earth late on 26 Mar, with a bulk of the material missing south and
behind Earths orbit. No additional Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on
24-26 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 8,285 pfu at 23/1900 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was slightly elevated, but well below alert threshold levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels through 26 Mar due to post storming effects. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue near background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected slowly diminishing CME effects, as well
as persistent negative polarity CH HSS influences. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 766 km/s at 23/0705 UTC. Total IMF averaged between
4-6 nT, Bz fluctuated between +/-5 nT, and Phi was predominantly in a
negative orientation.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced, reflecting
slowly diminishing CH HSS influences on 24 Mar and a continued weakening
trend through 25 Mar. Late on 26 Mar, the aforementioned CME is
anticipated to pass near Earth, possibly inducing additional
enhancements in the solar wind environment.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) levels under waning CME/CH HSS
influences.
.Forecast...
Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are expected early on 24 Mar
as negative polarity CH HSS influences persist. Mostly unsettled
conditions are expected, with isolated active periods likely, on 25 Mar
as negative polarity CH HSS influences continue, but gradually diminish.
By late 26 Mar, the aforementioned CME is anticipated to pass near
Earth, likely increasing activity to active levels.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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