Message:19482 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Mon, 23 Mar 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <9659_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 231231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4400 (S12W32,
Dao/beta-delta) underwent evolution as its leading spots of opposite
polarity grew and merged into the same penumbra, while it also gained an
intermediate spot which formed a weak gamma signature. Region 4401
(N24E58, Dao/beta) rotated into better viewing conditions, revealing an
asymmetric leading penumbra and additional trailing spots. A new H-type
spot was observed trailing Region 4402 (N17E63, Hsx/alpha), but went
unnumbered as we await better viewing conditions to verify it is indeed
separated from 4402.
Open field lines and faint CME material originated from the vicinity
of CH31, as seen in GOES CCOR-1 imagery at approximately 22/0645 UTC.
A subsequent CME was observed in GOES CCOR-1 imagery beginning at
22/1715 UTC associated with a filament disappearance observed on GONG
imagery. Initial modeling of these events indicates a glancing blow at
Earth on 26 Mar, which is outside of the three-day forecast period, with
a bulk of the material missing south and behind Earths orbit.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on
23 Mar, and is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class
flare on 24-25 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 1309 pfu at 22/1430 UTC following high speed stream onset and
initial rounds of geomagnetic storming. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux continued at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels through 25 Mar due to post storming effects. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning CME influences followed by
negative polarity CH HSS onset. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 716
km/s at 22/2027Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 22/1222 UTC. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 22/1432 UTC. Phi was
predominantly in a negative orientation with brief excursions into a
positive solar sector.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through the
forecast period. CH HSS influences are expected to begin to wane on 24
Mar and continue a weakening trend through 25 Mar.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G3 (Strong) levels under waning CME
influences and the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences.
.Forecast...
Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are expected on
23 Mar in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of
active conditions are expected on 24-25 Mar as negative polarity CH HSS
influences continue, but gradually diminish.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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