Message:19330 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 21 Mar 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <9493_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 211231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There
are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. Region 4397
(N16E34, Cao/beta) underwent some minor evolution as its leading
penumbra began to mature. Region 4392 (S17W46, Cso/beta) exhibited decay
in its leading spots, and remained relatively quiet. An area of new
spots began to develop late in the period located near S16E33.
A full halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning
just after 20/1336 UTC. Analysis of GOES SUVI imagery indicates this
event to have originated from the far side of the Sun.
.Forecast...
There is a chance for solar activity to reach periods of low activity
due to isolated C-class flares through 23 Mar. A slight chance for
M-class activity exists through 23 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 1,200 pfu at 20/1530 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
continued at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to decrease to
normal-moderate levels on 21 Mar due to CME arrival effects. Moderate
to high levels are expected on 22-23 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the arrival of the second CME at
approximately 20/2018 UTC. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s
at 20/2021 UTC. Total IMF reached 36 nT at 20/2100 UTC. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -28 nT at 20/2105 UTC. Phi angle was
in a mostly negative orientation with a positive rotation observed from
about 20/2200 to 21/0040 UTC.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through the
forecast period. CME effects are expected to begin to wane by early on
22 Mar before an additional disturbance due to recurrent, negative
polarity CH HSS influences arrive and continue through 23 Mar.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G2-G3 (Moderate-Strong) geomagnetic storm
levels late in the period due to influence from a CME that left the Sun
on 18 Mar.
.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G3 (Strong) geomagnetic
storm levels on early on 21 Mar due to ongoing CME effects. G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storming is likely to continue on into 22 Mar as recurrent,
negative polarity CH HSS effects begin and CME effects wane. Unsettled
to active conditions are then expected to prevail on 23 Mar as CH HSS
effects continue.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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