Message:18877 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 15 Mar 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <9149_N4SD>
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FXXX10 KWNP 151231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Mar 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 15-Mar 17 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 15-Mar 17 2026
Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar 17
00-03UT 4.00 3.67 2.67
03-06UT 2.00 3.67 3.00
06-09UT 2.33 3.00 2.33
09-12UT 3.67 2.33 2.33
12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 2.00 2.33
15-18UT 3.33 2.67 2.33
18-21UT 2.00 3.00 2.33
21-00UT 2.33 3.00 2.00
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 15 Mar due to
influence from a positive polarity coronal hole.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 15-Mar 17 2026
Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar 17
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 15-Mar 17 2026
Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar 17
R1-R2 15% 15% 15%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 15-17 Mar.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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