Message:18876 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 15 Mar 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <9150_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 151231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4392 (S15E33, Cao/beta)
produced the strongest flare of the period, an M1.0 flare at 15/0939
UTC. Only minor changes were observed among the spotted numbered regions
on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 17 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to
moderate levels through 15 Mar before reaching high levels on 16 and 17
Mar due to high speed stream effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to continue at background levels through 17 Mar.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a positive
polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was between 5-9 nT. The
Bz component was mostly positive but briefly reached as far south as -7
nT early in the reporting period. Solar wind speeds were in gradual
decline, with speeds decreasing from ~700 km/s to ~650 km/s over the
past 24 hours. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive
solar sector.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated, but gradually
decline over the next three days (15-17 Mar). There is a small potential
for additional enhancement on 15-16 Mar from the periphery of a CME that
left the Sun on 13 Mar.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels due to positive polarity CH HSS effects.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to continue reaching active levels, with
potential to reach G1 (Minor) levels, over 15-16 Mar under the waning
phase of the coronal holes HSS. Unsettled levels are likely over 17
Mar.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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