Message:18822 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 14 Mar 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <9078_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260314/1252Z 29006@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260314/1250Z 13362@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260314/1238Z 55519@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260314/1231Z 9078@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 141231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4392 (S15E47, Cso/beta)
produced the strongest flare of the period, a C8.1/1N at 13/2023 UTC.
Region 4384 (N10W87, Dai/beta) produced the majority of the C-class
flare activity as it rotated around the NW limb. Decay was observed
among most of the remaining active regions on the visible disk. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over 14-16 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 1,170 pfu observed at 13/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate
levels on 14 Mar and 15 Mar, and high levels again on 16 Mar. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background
levels through 16 Mar.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters suggested the continued influence of a positive
polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength varied between 5-13 nT.
The Bz component reached as far south as -10 nT. Solar wind speeds
steadily increased over the past 24 hours, from ~500 km/s to ~700 km/s
by the periods end. Phi angle was predominantly oriented int he
positive solar sector.
.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail through 16 Mar
due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm
levels due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast...
Periods of G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming are
expected early on 14 Mar, with active conditions likely on 15-16 Mar,
due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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