Message:18801 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 14 Mar 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <9048_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260314/0216Z 28991@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260314/0213Z 13340@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260314/0208Z 55499@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260314/0032Z 9048@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 140031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4384 (N09W81, Dai/beta)
produced an M1.2/Sf (R1-Minor) flare at 13/0955 UTC, the strongest of
the period. The region continued to show rapid growth in its
intermediate and trailer spots as it approached the W limb. Decay was
observed in Regions 4390 (N26W12, Bxo/beta) and 4388 (S14W71, Bxo/beta),
with Region 4387 (N08, L=076) decaying fully to plage. Only minor
changes were observed in the remaining spotted active regions.
Other activity included a large filament eruption in the southern
hemisphere. It began slowly lifting off after ~12/2100 UTC. Subsequent
SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery contained a CME signature to the SW
beginning at 13/0036 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggests
the ejecta will predominantly pass below and ahead of Earths orbit.
However, this is a slight chance of a minor glancing blow late on 15
Mar.
No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over 14-15 Mar, entirely due to
the flaring potential of Region 4384. The probability of M-flares
decreases to a slight chance as this region moves beyond the limb on 16
Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 1,170 pfu observed at 13/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate
levels on 14 Mar, and high levels again on 15-16 Mar. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through
16 Mar.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters contained enhancements after ~13/0500 UTC,
indicative of the arrival of a CIR before an anticipated CH HSS. Total
magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 13 nT. Bz rotated as far
south as -8 nT for an hour period around 0715 UTC, then rotated back
north where it stayed for the majority of the rest of the period. Solar
wind speeds increased from ~400 km/s to ~700 km/s, beginning after
13/0830 UTC. Phi angle transitioned from negative to positive at 13/0854
UTC.
.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail through 16 Mar
due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm
levels.
.Forecast...
Periods of G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming are
expected early on 14 Mar, with active conditions likely on 15-16 Mar,
due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
Return To Bulletin List