Message:18800 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 14 Mar 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <9047_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260314/0216Z 28990@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260314/0211Z 13339@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260314/0206Z 55498@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260314/0031Z 9047@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 140031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Mar 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 14-Mar 16 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 14-Mar 16 2026
Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar 16
00-03UT 5.67 (G2) 4.00 3.67
03-06UT 5.67 (G2) 3.33 3.33
06-09UT 4.33 2.00 2.67
09-12UT 4.00 2.00 2.00
12-15UT 3.67 2.67 1.67
15-18UT 3.00 2.00 2.00
18-21UT 3.00 2.33 2.00
21-00UT 3.00 2.67 3.00
Rationale: G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected
over 14 Mar due to coronal hole influence.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 14-Mar 16 2026
Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar 16
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 13 2026 0955 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 14-Mar 16 2026
Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar 16
R1-R2 25% 25% 20%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 14 Mar and a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
radio blackouts over 15-16 Mar.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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