Message:18768 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Fri, 13 Mar 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <8983_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260313/1334Z 28976@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260313/1328Z 46715@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260313/1328Z 63760@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
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FXXX12 KWNP 131231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4384 (n09W74, Esi/beta)
produced an M1.2/SF (R1-Minor) flare at 13/0955 UTC, the strongest of
the period. The region continued to increase in area in its intermediate
and trailer spots as it approached the W limb. Decay was observed in
Regions 4388 (S14W68, Cro/beta) and 4387 (N08E02, Axx/alpha). Only minor
changes were observed in the remaining spotted active regions.
Other activity included a large filament eruption in the southern
hemisphere. It began slowly lifting off after ~12/2100 UTC. Subsequent
SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery contained a CME signature to the SW
beginning at 13/0036 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested
the ejecta would pass below Earths orbit. No other potentially
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over 13-15 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 2,940 pfu observed at 12/1545 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
13 Mar, moderate levels on 14 Mar, and high levels again on 15 Mar. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background
levels through 15 Mar.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters contained enhancements after ~13/0500 UTC. Total
magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 13 nT and Bz rotated as
far south as -8 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from ~400 km/s to ~500
km/s beginning after 13/0830 UTC. Phi angle transitioned from negative
to positive at 13/0854 UTC.
.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail through 15 Mar
due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels.
.Forecast...
Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are expected on 13-14 Mar,
with active conditions likely on 15 Mar, due to positive polarity CH HSS
influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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