Message:18767 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Fri, 13 Mar 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <8982_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260313/1328Z 28975@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260313/1327Z 8069@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260313/1325Z 55475@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260313/1231Z 8982@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 131231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Mar 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 13-Mar 15 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 13-Mar 15 2026
Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15
00-03UT 3.33 4.67 (G1) 4.00
03-06UT 4.00 4.00 3.33
06-09UT 2.67 4.00 2.67
09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 2.00
12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.00
15-18UT 4.00 2.33 2.00
18-21UT 3.67 2.33 2.33
21-00UT 3.67 3.67 2.67
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected over 13-14 Mar due
to coronal hole influence.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 13-Mar 15 2026
Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 13 2026 0955 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 13-Mar 15 2026
Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 13-15 Mar.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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