Message:18709 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Thu, 12 Mar 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <8920_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260312/1316Z 28935@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260312/1313Z 13258@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260312/1307Z 55441@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260312/1231Z 8920@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 121231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 4384 (N08W61, Cso/beta) produced a
C4.0 flare at 12/1046 UTC, the largest of the period. Growth was
observed in 4384, 4391 (N05E27, Dro/beta), and 4393 (N13E40, Cro/beta).
Only minor changes were observed in the remaining spotted regions. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 14 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 2,076 pfu observed at 11/1825 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
12-13 Mar. A decrease to normal to moderate levels is likely on 14 Mar
due to CH HSS onset. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels through 14 Mar.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly elevated. Total magnetic field
strength was between 5-6 nT. The Bz component reached as far south as -5
nT. Solar wind speeds varied from ~400-450 km/s. Phi angle was
predominantly oriented in the negative sector.
.Forecast...
Near nominal levels are expected over 12 Mar. On 13 Mar, solar wind
enhancements are likely due to the anticipated onset if influence from a
negative polarity coronal hole. Elevated solar parameters are expected
to persist through 14 Mar.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 12 Mar.
The onset of a CIR/CH HSS is expected around midday on 13 Mar causing
causing conditions to increase up to G1 (Minor) storm conditions. G1
(Minor) conditions are remain likely through 14 Mar.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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